Covid-19, policy responses, and industrial productivity around the globe

Abstract

We examine whether the COVID-19-induced policy responses by countries moderated the negative impact of the pandemic on industrial productivity. Using a panel of the 50 most affected countries by the pandemic, we show that the policy responses do not only help reduce the spread of COVID-19, but they also moderate its negative impact on industrial productivity and help steer countries back to their growth paths. We demonstrate that, in the absence of the pandemic, some of the policy responses (i.e., lockdowns, travel restrictions, etc.) would have reduced productivity. We further demonstrate that our estimates are robust when considering alternative specifications of our productivity model. Our study provides strong support for evidence-based policies and emphasizes, consistent with theoretical arguments, that an optimal policy mix is fundamental to steering economies back to their steady productivity growth paths when facing negative shocks.