Cohort fertility of Polish women, 1945–2015: the context of postponement and recuperation

Abstract

The article is a follow-up and an extension to previously published papers by Holzer-Żelażewska & Holzer (1997) and Holzer-Żelażewska & Tymicki (2009). Fristly, we have added new cohorts to the cohort analysis based on the individual data from births registration for the years 2009–2015. Secondly, we have extended the scope of the study by taking into account the context of postponement and recuperation to analyses of cohort fertility of Polish women. The approach applied to the fertility postponement and recuperation on the cohort data refers to the method which was originally proposed by Frejka (2011) and Lesthaeghe (2001) and further developed by Sobotka et al. (Sobotka et al., 2011). This method allows for calculation of fertility postponement and recuperation measures with respect to a benchmark cohort chosen as the one that first experiences an onset of the increase in the mean age of motherhood at first birth. The results show the remarkable changes in the fertility patterns in Poland. The main driving forces behind the change in fertility patterns in Poland are related to the postponement of first births along with a relatively good recuperation. The magnitude of recuperation for Polish cohorts dropped significantly for second births and was almost non-existent for third and higher births. Therefore, the pattern of fertility in Poland observed till 2015 could be characterized by postponement and recuperation of first births along with a significant decrease in second births with perpetual postponement of third and higher births.