Spatiotemporal Variation in Ecosystem Health Caused by Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Pakistan

Abstract

Human activities are causing frequent and drastic changes in land use and land cover, which have had important impacts on ecology and the environment. Assessing land use changes is an accurate and valuable approach to assessing the effect of these activities on ecosystem health. Pakistan is currently experiencing ecological stress caused by agricultural development, urbanization, and uncontrolled deforestation. This study examined the spatiotemporal variation of land use and land cover in Pakistan at a resolution of 30 m and evaluated the ecosystem health in the country from 2010 to 2020 using the Vigor–Organization–Resilience–Services framework at a precision of 500 m. Results indicate that the construction land area in Pakistan increased by 4,084.92 km2, and water body by 3,329.62 km2 between 2010 and 2020. The decrease in forest area was very significant in 2015 (by 5,625 km2), and this situation was brought under control by 2020. However, the regions with an ecosystem health index above 0.8 decreased by 61%, primarily in Islamabad. The spatial clustering of the Ecosystem Health Index in Pakistan became more evident, with Moran’s I increasing from 0.834 in 2010 to 0.871 in 2020. Based on these findings, this study recommends that Pakistan establishes a national ecosystem health management system to monitor significant changes in land use and land cover. Furthermore, it emphasizes the need for increased investment in green development to promote sustainable regional development.