Establishment and validation of a predictive nomogram model for non-small cell lung cancer patients with chronic hepatitis B viral infection

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to establish an effective predictive nomogram for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with chronic hepatitis B viral (HBV) infection. Methods: The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 230 NSCLC patients with chronic HBV infection. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis and were compared with the current tumor, node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system. Results: Independent factors derived from Kaplan-Meier analysis of the primary cohort to predict overall survival (OS) were all assembled into a Cox proportional hazards regression model to build the nomogram model. The final model included age, tumor size, TNM stage, treatment, apolipoprotein A-I, apolipoprotein B, glutamyl transpeptidase and lactate dehydrogenase. The calibration curve for the probability of OS showed that the nomogram-based predictions were in good agreement with the actual observations. The C-index of the model for predicting OS had a superior discrimination power compared with the TNM staging system [0.780 (95% CI 0.733-0.827) vs. 0.693 (95% CI 0.640-0.746), P < 0.01], and the decision curve analyses showed that the nomogram model had a higher overall net benefit than did the TNM stage. Based on the total prognostic scores (TPS) of the nomogram, we further subdivided the study cohort into three groups: low risk (TPS ≤ 13.5), intermediate risk (13.5 < TPS ≤ 20.0) and high risk (TPS > 20.0). Conclusion: The proposed nomogram model resulted in more accurate prognostic prediction for NSCLC patients with chronic HBV infection.