Examining the Water Scarcity Vulnerability in US River Basins Due To Changing Climate

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Abstract

Accurate assessment of changes in water availability with changing climate is vital for effective mitigation and adaptation. In this research, we employ a parsimonious Budyko curve method to evaluate changes in water availability under low- (SSP126) and high-emission (SSP585) scenarios for 331 river basins in the contiguous United States. We also assess the relative role of changes in precipitation (∆P) and potential evapotranspiration (∆PET) with changing climate on the increase in water availability vulnerability. Results highlight that around 43% (28%) of basins are projected to experience increased vulnerability to changing climate in high-emission (low-emission) scenarios. Sub-humid basins are most often impacted, while arid and semi-arid basins exhibit lower sensitivity to changes. Intriguingly, ∆PET emerges as the dominant control on vulnerability, surpassing ∆P, particularly under SSP585 scenario. The analysis prompts water managers to focus on long-term mitigation planning and scientists to further constraint climate and water budget forecasts in affected basins.

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Wolkeba, F. T., Kumar, M., & Mekonnen, M. M. (2023). Examining the Water Scarcity Vulnerability in US River Basins Due To Changing Climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(24). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106004

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