Peak Car Use and the Rise of Global Rail: Why This Is Happening and What It Means for Large and Small Cities

Abstract

The 21st century\rpromises some dramatic changes—some expected, others surprising. One of the\rmore surprising changes is the dramatic peaking in car use and an associated\rincrease in the world’s urban rail systems. This paper sets out what is\rhappening with the growth of rail, especially in the traditional car dependent\rcities of the US and Australia, and why this is happening, particularly its\rrelationship to car use declines. It provides new data on the plateau in the\rspeed of urban car transportation that supports rail’s increasing role compared\rto cars in cities everywhere, as well as other structural, economic and\rcultural changes that indicate a move away from car dependent urbanism. The\rpaper suggests that the rise of urban rail is a contributing factor in peak car\ruse through the relative reduction in speed of traffic compared to transit,\respecially rail, as well as the growing value of dense, knowledge-based centers\rthat depend on rail access for their viability and cultural attraction.\rFinally, the paper suggests what can be done to make rail work better based on\rsome best practice trends in large cities and small car dependent cities.