Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, and Water Availability in the Caucasus Region

Abstract

The paper discusses the observed and projected warming in the Caucasus region and its implications for glacier melt, water availability and potential hazards. A strong positive trend in summer air temperatures of 0.05{\textdegree}C year−1 is observed in the high-altitude areas (above 2000 m) providing for a strong glacier melt. A widespread glacier retreat has also been reported between 1985 and 2000, with an average rate of 8 m year−1. A warming of 5--7{\textdegree}C is projected for the summer months in the 2071--2100 period under the A2 emission group of scenarios, suggesting that enhanced glacier melt and a changing water balance can be expected.