Trends in tuberculosis mortality in Brazil (1990-2015): joinpoint analysis

Abstract

The objective of this study was to analyze trends in the tuberculosis mortality rate in Brazil (1990-2015) in an ecological time-series analysis. The indicators were obtained from the Brazilian National Ministry of Health. A joinpoint regression model was applied for the temporal analysis, with a level of significance of 5%. During the period in question, there was a trend toward a reduction in mortality in the country as a whole (p < 0.001) and in each of its five regions. The states with the highest tuberculosis mortality rates were Rio de Janeiro (7.0/100,000 population) and Pernambuco (5.0/100,000 population). Eleven states and the Federal District of Brasília showed downward trends. Only the state of Alagoas showed a significant increase (p < 0.001). The temporal behavior observed indicates that tuberculosis continues to be a major public health problem in Brazil.