Predicting molybdenum deposit growth

Abstract

In the study of molybdenum deposits and most other minerals deposits, including copper, lead and zinc, there is speculation that most undiscovered ore results from an increase (or "growth") in the estimated size of a known deposit due to factors such as exploitation and advances in mining and exploration technology, rather than in discovering wholly new deposits. The purpose of this study is to construct a nonlinear model to estimate deposit "growth" for known deposits as a function of cutoff grade. The model selected for this data set was a truncated normal cumulative distribution function. Because the cutoff grade is commonly unknown, a model to estimate cutoff grade conditioned upon the deposit grade was constructed using data from 34 deposits with reported data on molybdenum grade, cutoff grade, and tonnage. Finally, an example is presented.