Forecasting mineral commodity prices with multidimensional grey metabolism Markov chain

Abstract

The price with large random fluctuation in mineral market has made it very difficult to do an accurate forecast. To overcome this problem, a multidimensional grey metabolism Markov forecasting method is proposed based on the theories of Grey forecast and Stochastic process. The forecasting effect of the model is tested through a case study and analysis with MATLAB software. The research results indicate that the forecasting precision of the proposed method is high and not limited to forecasting step length. So the method can be used to do a long term forecasting for mineral commodity prices without considering economic crisis. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.