How to determine the early warning threshold value of meteorological factors on influenza through big data analysis and machine learning

Abstract

Infectious diseases are a major health challenge for the worldwide population. Since their rapid spread can cause great distress to the real world, in addition to taking appropriate measures to curb the spread of infectious diseases in the event of an outbreak, proper prediction and early warning before the outbreak of the threat of infectious diseases can provide an important basis for early and reasonable response by the government health sector, reduce morbidity and mortality, and greatly reduce national losses. However, if only traditional medical data is involved, it may be too late or too difficult to implement prediction and early warning of an infectious outbreak. Recently, medical big data has become a research hotspot and has played an increasingly important role in public health, precision medicine, and disease prediction. In this paper, we focus on exploring a prediction and early warning method for influenza with the help of medical big data. It is well known that meteorological conditions have an influence on influenza outbreaks. So, we try to find a way to determine the early warning threshold value of influenza outbreaks through big data analysis concerning meteorological factors. Results show that, based on analysis of meteorological conditions combined with influenza outbreak history data, the early warning threshold of influenza outbreaks could be established with reasonable high accuracy.