Analysis of Prospective Scenarios: A Study on Educational REITS in Brazil

Abstract

Among the problems caused by the pandemic of the new coronavirus (SARS-COV-2), besides the irreparable loss of loved ones and the damage to global health caused by the disease, the restrictions imposed and the economic losses incurred by them stood out. Given the sudden changes imposed on the routine of society and companies, many businesses went bankrupt, while the other survivors needed to adapt quickly, resulting in a routine based on home office, e-commerce and distance learning. The educational sector was strongly affected by these restrictions, as well as the assets linked to it, as highlighted by the cumulative annual drop of 22% of the IFIX (index of Real Estate Investment Funds), witnessed by investors during the arrival and spread of the pandemic in Brazilian territory. Thus, the work was based on the prospective analysis of scenarios through the Momentum method, producing three possible future scenarios for the recovery of the educational REITs (Pessimistic, Optimistic, and Trend), with the help of three financial planning specialists. At the end of this study, it was possible to configure the scenarios: “The recovery of education REITs” as optimistic scenario, “Challenges of education REITs” as trend scenario, and “The crisis of education REITs” as Pessimistic scenario.