Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: Projecting future heat-related mortality

Abstract

Through the 21 st century, a significant increase in heat events is likely across California (USA). Beyond any climate change, the state will become more vulnerable through demographic changes resulting in a rapidly aging population. To assess these impacts, future heat-related mortality estimates are derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century. Heat-related mortality is first assessed by initially determining historical weather-type mortality relationships for each metropolitan area. These are then projected into the future based on predicted weather types created in Part I. Estimates account for several levels of uncertainty: for each metropolitan area, mortality values are produced for five different climate model-scenarios, three different population projections (along with a constant-population model), and with and without partial acclimatization. Major urban centers could have a greater than tenfold increase in short-term increases in heat-related mortality in the over 65 age group by the 2090s. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.