A dynamic population model for tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae) area-wide integrated pest management

Abstract

A spatial model of tsetse (Glossina palpalis ssp. and G. pallidipes) life cycle was created in FORTRAN, and four control measures [aerial spraying of non-residual insecticides, traps and targets, insecticide-treated livestock (ITL) and the sterile insect technique] were programmed into the model to assess how much of each of various combinations of these control tactics would be necessary to eradicate the population. The model included density-independent and -dependent mortality rates, temperature-dependent mortality, an age-dependent mortality, two mechanisms of dispersal and a component of aggregation. Sensitivity analyses assessed the importance of various life history features and indicated that female fertility and factors affecting survivorship had the greatest impact on the equilibrium of the female population. The female equilibrium was likewise reduced when dispersal and aggregation were acting together. Sensitivity analyses showed that basic female survivorship, age-dependent and temperature-dependent survivorship of adults, teneral-specific survivorship, daily female fertility, and mean temperature had the greatest effect on the four applied control measures. Time to eradication was reduced by initial knockdown of the population and due to the synergism of certain combinations of methods [e. g., traps-targets and sterile insect technique (SIT); ITL and SIT]. Competitive ability of the sterile males was an important parameter when sterile to wild male overflooding ratios were small. An aggregated wild population reduced the efficiency of the SIT, but increased it with increased dispersal. The model can be used interactively to facilitate decision making during the planning and implementation of operational area-wide integrated pest management programs against tsetse. © 2010 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.