Future agricultural water demand under climate change in Saskatchewan, Canada

Abstract

Climate change is highly relevant in any forecast of water demand in the future. There is enough scientific evidence now that makes climate change serious and compelling. In this study, two major effects of climate change for agriculture were included: (1) change in average temperature (and resulting higher evapotranspiration); (2) increased frequency of extreme dry events. Changes in water demand level were first estimated for a river basin by type of demand, and then aggregated to the Province. Total agricultural water demand was divided into five major types. Results suggest that water demand would increase through two types of sources: (1) demand for irrigation by producers; (2) demand for water for stockwatering purposes. During the 2010–2060 period, total agricultural water demand in the province will increase from 656 thousand dam3 to 1.3 million dam3 under a baseline scenario, but to 1.66 million dam3 under climate change – an increase of 24.3% resulting from climate change.