Population Ageing, the Intergenerational Conflict, and Active Ageing Policies – a Multilevel Study of 27 European Countries

Abstract

Increasing life expectancies and decreasing fertility rates are causing the European population to age. In the scientific and the public debate these demographic changes are sometimes perceived as an unstoppable “grey tide” which threatens the financial sustainability of social security and will inevitably lead to a conflict between the old and young generation. In this paper we critically review existing theoretical explanations for such a potential intergenerational conflict over welfare resources. We then empirically evaluate whether we find any evidence for an intergenerational conflict in Europe. In particular, we answer the following questions. (1) Is there a conflict between the interests of the younger and the older generation? Assuming that the strength of such a conflict depends on the share of older people in a country, and on how integrated they are in a society brings us to two follow-up questions: (2) Does the strength of the conflict increases with population ageing? And finally, (3) can a policy of Active Ageing, which is better integrating older generations into society, moderate the conflict? We answer these questions in a comparative study of 27 European countries using data from the Eurobarometer 2009. Our results show a moderate conflict between generations. Compared to spending preferences of the younger generation, older people are more likely to support increased spending for old age at the expense of educational spending. Linking country differences in the strength of the generational conflict to the degree of population ageing with multilevel regression techniques we do not find any evidence that the conflict itself is increasing with population ageing. In a final step of our analysis we evaluate the potential of generational policies- measured with the Active Aging Index - to mitigate the generational conflict. Contrary to expectation the intergenerational conflict is weaker when older people actively participate in the political life and are visible in society.