Options for agricultural development: a new quantitative approach

Abstract

A basis for agricultural development planning is a thorough analysis of the options for agricultural development. Such an analysis aims at the identification of the ‘best’ use of land. This definition implies the existence of generally accepted objectives. However, in practice different actors in the development process often have different, and at least partially conflicting objectives. To make a well-founded choice in these conditions, it is necessary to define on one hand the technical possibilities in quantitative terms, and on the other hand all possible development objectives. Confrontation of the two then should indicate to what degree the various objectives are attainable, to what degree they are conflicting and what the ‘exchange value’ among the objectives iso In this paper a method is presented that can be used as a tool in such an analysis. The technical possibilities are characterized by the technical coefficients of various production techniques, derived partly from simulation models, partly from farming systems analysis. For evaluation of the degree of realization of the various objectives the technique of interactive multiple goal linear programming (IMGLP) is employed, based on definition of the regional constraints and the development objectives. Application of the technique indicates to what extent the available techniques can meet the alternative demands under various policy options and different socioeconomic conditions.