Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Produk Pertanian dan Produk Industri Pertanian Indonesia : Pendekatan Macroeconometric Models dengan Path Analysis

Abstract

In the period of 1983-2002, exports of agricultural products and agro-industrial products increased, respectively, from Rp. 2.7 billion to Rp. 5.0 billion and from Rp. 3.6 billion to Rp. 17.9 billion. The increases were smaller than that of manufacturing products that increased from Rp. 2.3 billion to Rp. 57.5 billion in the same period. The objective of this paper is to identify factors encouraging Indonesia’s exports of agricultural products and agro-industrial products by using macro-econometric model analysis. The results indicate that policy variables dominantly affecting Indonesia’s export of agricultural products are the real exchange rate and government investment in the sector, whereas factors affecting Indonesia’s export of agro-industrial products is the real exchange rate. To increase Indonesia’s exports of agricultural products and agro-industrial products, therefore, the government needs to maintain the real exchange rate at the level that supporting exports. In addition, the government also needs to raise investment in Agricultural Sector, particularly for commodities having orientation and potential for exports.