Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

Abstract

The history of estimating oil reserves has proven a history of long-lasting misunderstandings. The split between the environmental perception of depletion and the common man's view, further contrasted the differences between the standpoints of the scientific and business communities, led to the most controversial topic ever debated within the energy community. While some forewarned that a critical moment for humanity was approaching, others found that all evidence and experience pointed in the opposite direction. This chapter traces the history of this debate from the first oil survey undertaken in the USA in 1909 through to current days. We trace how the accuracy of already known fixed stocks (proven reserves) has dominated all public concerns up until the moment when the peak theory of geophysicist King Hubbert shifted the terms of the discussion and grounding it in the size of the unknown-estimates of resources still undiscovered. The final section provides a review of the state of the art in the oil depletion debate. 6.1 Classifying Oil Reserves Estimating oil reserves has proven the most controversial topic ever debated within the energy community, surpassing even the clash over nuclear power. The controversy harkens back to the very beginning of the twentieth century, grounded in opposite views about the threat posed by oil depletion. This means that we are now into the third generation of contenders. As the dispute unfolded, different streams of thought became progressively entrenched in separate organizations and spheres of influence. What is more, each side narrowly pigeonholed the other: Advocates of free markets were quipped "cornucopians" by associating the efficiency of spontaneous market adjustments in the regular supply of oil with the myth of endless abundance promised by the "horn of plenty" a cornucopia-like symbol of ancient Greece; on the other hand, those warning against oil depletion risks were dubbed "doomsters," to buttress the parallelism between geoecological mindful conjectures and obscure insights into the omens of doom.