Non-additivity effects analysis on risks of construction schedule

Abstract

Many project activities can be affected by uncontrolable factors. Those risk factors may occur individually or simultaneously, existing research is limited in considering that when several risks take palce at the same time, the total impacts on project activity duration are non-additive impacts or additive impacts, and appropriate methodologies for analyzing non-additivty are not existent. In this paper, Bayesain network are proposed to settle this issue, and the results from the calculating example shows that there is non-additive effects when many risks impact on a activitiy simultaneously. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.