Power Consumption and Process Cost Prediction of Customized Products Using Explainable AI: A Case in the Steel Industry

Abstract

Production shifted from a product-centered perspective (mass production of one article) to a customer-centered perspective (mass customization of product variants). It also happens in energy-intensive industries, such as steel production. Mass customization companies face a challenge in accurately estimating the total costs of an individual product. Furthermore, 20% to 40% of the costs related to steel products come from energy. Increasing the product variety can cause an inevitable loss of sustainability. This paper presents machine-learning approaches to improve the sustainability of the steel production industry. It is done by finding the most accurate way to predict the power consumption and the costs of customized products. Moreover, this research also finds the most energy-efficient machine mix based on the predictions. The method is validated in a steel manufacturing Small Medium Enterprise (SME). In this research, experiments were conducted with different machine learning models, and it was found that the most accurate results were achieved using regularization-based and random forest regression models. Explainable AI (XAI) is also used to clarify how product properties influence process costs and power consumption. This paper also discusses scenarios on how the prediction of costs and power consumption can assist production planners in performing workstation selection. This research improves the production planning of customized products by providing a trustable decision support system for machine selection based on explainable machine learning models for process time and power consumption predictions.