Quantitative assessment of natural disaster coping capacity: An application for typhoons

Abstract

At present, natural disaster coping capabilities are quantitively represented as high, moderate, or low. These classifications, which are described as the results of relative grades, have failed to reveal the specific grades of disaster coping capacity. Therefore, an assessment method of natural disaster coping capacity, which is attempted to quantify the natural disaster coping capacity as disaster grades, was proposed in this study. First, an indicator system consisting of disaster reduction ability index, disaster resilience ability index, and disaster relief ability index was established. The index values were defined as disaster grades according to the historical disaster-related data and information on the equipment and infrastructure for disaster prevention. Second, the weights assigned to these indicators were assessed by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Then, the back propagation (BP) neural network was used to examine the indicator weights. Finally, the disaster coping capacity was estimated by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The assessment result was characterized as disaster grade. Cangnan county was chosen as a case study for the assessment of typhoon coping capacity by the proposed method. The results showed that the coping capacity of the county was prepared to deal with 12-13 intensity grades of typhoon. The assessment carried out using the proposed method accurately reflected the typhoon coping capacity of Cangnan. Moreover, the index values of disaster reduction ability, disaster resilience, and disaster relief ability revealed the advantages and limitations of typhoon coping capacity. This suggests that natural disaster coping capacity can be quantitatively assessed by the proposed method.