Predicting Future Lake Water Storage Changes on the Tibetan Plateau under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The variation of lake water storage is an important indicator for studying both climate change and ecological environment changes. Previous studies have mainly focused on the lake storage changes in recent decades, and predicting future lake storage changes on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenarios remains a crucial gap. We addressed this gap by establishing prediction models for water storage changes in nine lakes using historical water storage and climate data from the past 29 years and predicting the water storage changes for the next 80 years under three scenarios based on Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data. The Quantile-mapping (QM) method was applied to correct the precipitation data of CMIP6 with assimilated data. The results indicated that the prediction model performed well, with high correlation (R2 > 0.7 for the training set) and low mean absolute error (MSE < 0.1 km3). The results suggest that most lakes will experience a slight increase in water storage until 2050, followed by a rapid rise until 2100 under all three SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios, including SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585. By the end of the century, the total projected increase in lake water storage is estimated to be 189.676 ± 16.266 km3, 191.762 ± 10.683 km3, and 186.212 ± 6.441 km3 until 2100, respectively.