Methods of Projecting Future Changes in Extremes

Abstract

This chapter examines some selected methods of projecting changes in extreme weather and climate statistics. Indi ces of extreme temperature and precipi- tation provide measures of moderately rare weather events that are straightforward to calculate. Drought indices provide measures of both agricultural and hydrological drought that are especially suitable for cons tructing multi-model ensemble projec- tions of future change. Extreme value statistical theories are surveyed and provide methodologies for projecting the changes in frequency and severity of very rare temperature and precipitation events