A minimalistic prediction model to determine energy production and costs of offshore wind farms

Abstract

A numerical framework for determining the available wind power and associated costs related to the development of large-scale offshore wind farms is presented. The idea is to develop a fast and robust minimal prediction model, which with a limited number of easy accessible input variables can determine the annual energy output and associated costs for a specified offshore wind farm. The utilized approach combines an energy production model for offshore-located wind farms with an associated cost model that only demands global input parameters, such as wind turbine rotor diameter, nameplate capacity, area of the wind farm, number of turbines, water depth, and mean wind speed Weibull parameters for the site. The cost model includes expressions for the most essential wind farm cost elements—such as costs of wind turbines, support structures, cables and electrical substations, as well as costs of operation and maintenance—as function of rotor size, interspatial distance between the wind turbines, and water depth. The numbers used in the cost model are based on previous but updatable experiences from offshore wind farms, and are therefore, in general, moderately conservative. The model is validated against data from existing wind farms, and shows generally a very good agreement with actual performance and cost results for a series of well-documented wind farms.