Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing carbon dioxide. Part II: spatial and temporal structure of response

Abstract

Although the radiative forcing increases linearly, there is a delay of about 30 yr before the ocean warms appreciably. This "cold start' is, at least partly, an artifact of the experimental design. At the time of doubling (after 70 yr), the patterns of change are similar to those found in comparable studies of the equilibrium response, except in the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, where the warming is considerably reduced. The mechanisms leading to this reduction are discussed. After two to three decades, the pattern of warming is well established. The warming over land is substantially larger than that over the sea, with a consequent lowering of surface pressure over the northern continents in summer. -from Authors