Economic and mathematical modeling of food security level in view of import substitution

Abstract

Strategy of development of any country’s economy supposes the purpose of achieving and preserving food security which is determined as the state’s capability, guaranteed by corresponding resource potential, to satisfy - independently from external and internal conditions and in stable manner – the need of country’s population on the whole and of each citizen for food products and drinking water in volumes, assortment, and quality, sufficient for full physical and social development, health support, and provision of expanded reproduction. The problem of provision of food security remains topical since the start of liberalization of foreign economic policy in Russia. The authors of the article use the mathematical tool of fuzzy logic to develop economic & mathematical model of evaluation of the level of food security in view of import substitution. By the example of the Russian Federation, the authors show the manifestation of the problem of food security under the modern conditions, and how this problem can be solved with the help of import substitution. The developed economic & mathematical model allows modeling the functioning of the system through setting the corresponding components of vectors. Implementation of the offered food model allows receiving integral evaluation of the state of food security and determining comparative characteristics of the values of threats to food security on the basis of their automatized evaluation.