Sea level rise projections for Failaka island in the state of Kuwait

Abstract

As a result of climate change, many lands are under risk due to the rising sea levels (RSL). Studies show that the mean sea level will likely rise by 0.16 to 0.63 metres before 2050, and 0.2 to 2.5 metres by 2100. Lower-lying islands are more endangered from RSL. One of such islands is Failaka, a small island in Kuwait lying at the entrance of Kuwait Bay, which is located on the north-western side of the Arabian Gulf (Also called the Persian Gulf). Most of Failaka Island is lower than three meters. The Governmental plans are to develop and populate the island. SLR should be considered in such planning. This study focuses particularly on detecting the areas of Failaka Island which are under high threat from the SLR. To detect these areas, spatial analysis of the Digital elevation model (DEM) are used. DEM is estimated for three SLR scenarios (1, 2 and 3 metres). It is expected that 31% of the island will be under sea level height for the SLR of 1 m; 54% for the SLR of 2 metres; and 87% for the SLR of 3 m. Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is estimated as well. The CVI shows that the eastern coast is the most susceptible with regard to the SLR. The model was validated through using ground elevation points (n = 40), and a positive correlation was found with r^2 of 0.8019. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote sensing (RS) are confirmed to be effective tools for estimating spatial influence of the SLR.