Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach

Abstract

This note outlines a method for forecasting life expectancy. The method is based on the idea of structured conditional probabilistic estimation; it “scopes” out the range of possibilities the future may hold. I first described this SCOPE method at a workshop organized by Juha Alho several years ago in Finland. It is a kind of scenario method – with probabilities attached to scenarios, with scenarios structured conditionally, and with the possibility of stochastic scenarios. It is a simple method, and it is by no means original; many other people have used a similar approach in various settings. This method might be helpful to those who want to forecast life expectancy. This note summarizes my presentation.