Stacked species distribution models and macroecological models provide congruent projections of avian species richness under climate change

Abstract

Aim: Using survey data for North American birds, we assess how well historical patterns of species richness are explained by stacked species distribution models and macroecological models. We then describe the degree to which projections of future species richness differ, employing both modelling approaches across multiple emissions scenarios. Location: USA and Canada. Methods: We use Audubon Christmas Bird Count and North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate current and future species richness of birds using two distinct approaches. In the first, we model richness by stacking predictions from individual species distribution models. In the second, we model richness directly, ignoring the contributions of specific taxa to richness estimates. Results: The two modelling approaches show similar accuracies when validated with historical observations, particularly winter observations, and result in similar patterns of richness when projected onto current and future climate spaces. Patterns of projected change in species richness differed markedly between winter and summer seasons regardless of modelling approach. Our models suggest that bird species richness in winter will increase or remain stable across much of North America. In contrast, species richness in summer is projected to decrease over much of North America, except part of northern Canada, suggesting that climate may constrain many breeding bird species and communities in the future. Main conclusions: Stacked species distribution models and macroecological models produce similar estimates of current and future species richness for each of two seasons despite being built on different concepts of community assembly. Our results suggest that, although the mechanisms that shape geographical variation in biodiversity remain uncertain, these limitations do not impede our ability to predict patterns of species richness at broad scales. Congruence of species richness projections across modelling approaches is encouraging for conservation planning efforts that focus on retaining biodiversity into the future.