Deducing Leading Factors of Spatial Distribution of Carbon Reserves in Nanjing Metropolitan Area Based on Random Forest Model

Abstract

Improving carbon reserves is considered to be an important way to alleviate global warming. However, there is a lack of research work based on the perspective of metropolitan area, and there is also a lack of analysis on the leading influencing factors of spatial distribution of carbon storage in subregions of metropolitan area. In this study, Nanjing metropolitan area (NMA) is taken as the research area, and the InVEST model is used to calculate the spatial distribution of regional carbon reserves, and the evolution of carbon reserves distribution in recent 20 years is analyzed. Then, based on the random forest (RF) model, taking the whole study area and subareas as the research scope, a regression model of each selected impact factor and carbon reserves is established, and the leading factors of spatial distribution of carbon reserves in NMA are obtained. The results show that the overall carbon reserves level in the study area is in a downward trend. Through the application of the RF model, the leading factors of the spatial distribution of carbon reserves in NMA and its subareas are derived. The research proves that the application of the RF model in the analysis is helpful for city planners and governments to make plans and improve regional carbon storage more effectively.