Measuring Border Security for Resource Allocation

Abstract

Effective management of border security requires effective measurement of the impact of alternative policies on unwanted cross-border flows. There are no agreed-upon ways to measure the amount of any particular inflow; some indicators are believed to rise and fall with each in-flow, but they do not measure the total flow. To combine multiple measures proportional to an unmeasurable flow, we introduce Principal Ray Analysis. The resulting estimates of fractional change in unseen flows, combined with cost information, support optimal incremental resource allocation, for any single type of flow. Extension to multiple flows requires agreement on the relative importance of reducing each of the flows. A common data store is recommended to support rational debate on cross-flow allocations and overall “security.”.