Characteristics and risk analysis of hydrological disaster events from 1949 to 2015 in Urumqi, China

Abstract

According to the statistics and collation of data on the main hydrological disasters that occurred in Urumqi from 1949 to 2015, the risk characteristics of the main hydrological disasters in the city are identified and analyzed to reveal the distribution of local hydrological hazard risk based on the comprehensive disaster risk assessment theory for historical disasters. The research findings are as follows: (1) the main hydrological disasters in Urumqi are caused by floods, snow, and droughts, among which floods have the greatest risk, while the risk of droughts is minimal. (2) There are various and complex types of flood disasters in Urumqi, which have frequent occurrences, a wide range of influence, and easily cause secondary disasters. Snow disasters are complex and diverse, with frequent occurrences. Moreover, there are varied and complex types of drought disasters in Urumqi, which have frequent occurrences. Drought disasters in Urumqi, which last for a long time, have enormous effects on agricultural and forestry crops, while the frequencies of frost and hail disasters in Urumqi are lower. (3) Historical hydrological disasters in Urumqi mainly occurred from May to August and November to March of the following year, which are high-frequency months for hydrological disasters. (4) Flood disasters in Urumqi occur every 1.59 years, on average, while snow disasters in Urumqi occur every 1.65 years, on average. Additionally, flood and snow disasters could easily occur in the next 15 years. (5) The hydrological disaster environment in Urumqi is mainly affected by local temperature, sunshine, elevation, topography, precipitation, plant resources, and the social economy.