Association vs. Prediction: The Impact of Cortical Surface Smoothing and Parcellation on Brain Age

Abstract

Association and prediction studies of the brain target the biological consequences of aging and their impact on brain function. Such studies are conducted using different smoothing levels and parcellations at the preprocessing stage, on which their results are dependent. However, the impact of these parameters on the relationship between association values and prediction accuracy is not established. In this study, we used cortical thickness and its relationship with age to investigate how different smoothing and parcellation levels affect the detection of age-related brain correlates as well as brain age prediction accuracy. Our main measures were resel numbers—resolution elements—and age-related variance explained. Using these common measures enabled us to directly compare parcellation and smoothing effects in both association and prediction studies. In our sample of N = 608 participants with age range 18–88, we evaluated age-related cortical thickness changes as well as brain age prediction. We found a negative relationship between prediction performance and correlation values for both parameters. Our results also quantify the relationship between delta age estimates obtained based on different processing parameters. Furthermore, with the direct comparison of the two approaches, we highlight the importance of correct choice of smoothing and parcellation parameters in each task, and how they can affect the results of the analysis in opposite directions.