The Impact of Climate Change on Mangrove Forests

Abstract

Mangrove forests have survived a number of catastrophic climate events since first appearing along the shores of the Tethys Sea during the late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary. The existence of mangrove peat deposits worldwide attests to past episodes of local and regional extinction, primarily in response to abrupt, rapid rises in sea level. Occupying a harsh margin between land and sea, most mangrove plants and associated organisms are predisposed to be either resilient or resistant to most environmental change. Based on the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts, mangrove forests along arid coasts, in subsiding river deltas, and on many islands are predicted to decline in area, structural complexity, and/or in functionality, but mangroves will continue to expand polewards. It is highly likely that they will survive into the foreseeable future as sea level, global temperatures, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise.