Statistical downscaling and projection of future temperature and precipitation change in middle catchment of Sutlej River Basin, India

Abstract

Ensembles of two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CGCM3 and HadCM3, are used to project future maximum temperature (TMax), minimum temperature (TMin) and precipitation in a part of Sutlej River Basin, northwestern Himalayan region, India. Large scale atmospheric variables of CGCM3 and HadCM3 under different emission scenarios and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis datasets are downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Variability and changes in TMax, TMin and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of HadCM3 model are presented for future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The study reveals rise in annual average TMax, TMin and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 for CGCM3 model as well as under A2 and B2 scenarios for HadCM3 model in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Increase in mean monthly TMin is also observed for all months of the year under all scenarios of both the models. This is followed by decrease in TMax during June, July August and September. However, the model projects rise in precipitation in months of July, August and September under A1B and A2 scenarios of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of HadCM3 model for future periods.