Development of a nomogram model to predict survival outcomes in patients with primary hepatic neuroendocrine tumors based on SEER database

Abstract

Background: Primary hepatic neuroendocrine tumors (PH-NETs) are extremely rare and unknown. Because of its rarity, its prognosis features and influencing factors are not well established. Methods: Data of 140 patients with PH-NETs diagnosed in the SEER database from 1975 to 2016 were collected. The demographics and clinic-pathological features were described. By using propensity-score matching (PSM) analysis, three associated cohorts were selected to describe the malignancy of PH-NETs and univariate analysis was conducted. Then, multivariate Cox analyses were performed and a predicting nomograph was constructed. C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive value of nomogram. Results: The overall survival outcomes of PH-NETs were superior to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a mean survival time 30.64 vs 25.11 months (p = 0.052), but inferior to gastrointestinal tract neuroendocrine tumors in situ (GI-NETs in situ) with a mean survival time 30.64 vs 41.62 months (p = 0.017). With reference to gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors with liver metastasis (GI-NETs-LM), GI-NETs-LM had better outcomes in short time (1-year survival rate: 64.75% vs 56.43%) but was worse in long time (5-year survival rate: 8. 63% vs 18.57%). Multivariate Cox analyses showed that tumor grade and surgery were two independent factors for prognosis of the patients (p < 0.00). Tumor grade and surgery were used to construct the predicting nomogram. The C-index was 0.79 (95%CI = 0.75–0.83). The area under curve (AUC) values in ROC were 0.868 in 1-year and 0.917 in 3-year survival and the calibration curves showed good consistency. Conclusions: The overall prognosis PH-NETs is generally favorable, better than HCC and GI-NETs-LM in long term. Preoperative biopsy and complete pathological diagnosis were recommended. Radical surgical intervention including transplantation was the first choice in PH-NETs therapy.