Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy

Abstract

This paper presents an approach for identifying the optimal maintenance schedule for the components of a production system. Safety, health and environment objectives, maintenance costs and costs of lost production are all taken into consideration, and maintenance is thus optimized with respect to multiple objectives. Such a global approach to maintenanceoptimization requires expertise from various fields, e.g., decision theory, risk analysis and reliability and maintenance modelling. Further, a close co-operation between management, maintenance personnel and analysts is required to achieve a successful result. In the past this has been a major obstacle to the extensive use of proper maintenanceoptimization methods in practice, and techniques to promote the communication between the involved parties of the optimization process is an essential element in the suggested approach. A simple step by step presentation of the required modelling is provided. Contrary to most current methods of RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance), the approach is based on an analytic model, and therefore gives a sound framework for carrying out a proper maintenanceoptimization. The approach is also flexible as it can be carried out at various levels of detail, e.g., adopted to available resources and to the managements willingness to give detailed priorities with respect to objectives on safety vs production loss.