Assessment of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality of the multi-river Vistula Lagoon catchment

Abstract

Abstract: Coastal areas will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise. Our study focuses on the Vistula Lagoon located in the south Baltic, whose water regime and ecological status are highly dependent on the river inflow coming from its catchment. Changes in climate may cause variations in water quantity and quality in the rivers and affect the ecological and socio-economic potential of the lagoon. The climate impact study in this catchment containing more than 20 rivers is challenging as only a few of them are gauged. The impacts were modelled, using the ecohydrological model SWIM, and applying a set of 15 climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES project. Scenario analysis revealed a projected overall increase in precipitation, as well as in temperature, for the Vistula Lagoon catchment, which cause diverse changes in discharge, water temperature, dissolved nutrient concentrations and loads coming from the rivers. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor M. White