Characterization of Peaks and Valleys of Electricity Demand. Application to the Spanish Mainland System in the Period 2000-2020

Abstract

Energy planning must anticipate the development and strengthening of power grids, power plants construc-tion times, and the provision of energy resources with the aim of increasing security of supply and its quality. This work presents a methodology for predicting power peaks in mainland Spain's system in the decade 2011-2020. Forecasts of total electricity demand of Spanish energy authorities set the boundary conditions. The accuracy of the results has successfully been compared with records of demand (2000-2010) and with various predictions published. Three patterns have been observed: 1) efficiency in the winter peak; 2) in-creasing trend in the summer peak; 3) increasing trend in the annual valley of demand. By 2020, 58.1 GW and 53.0 GW are expected, respectively, as winter and summer peaks in a business-as-usual scenario. If the observed tendencies continue, former values can go down to 55.5 GW in winter and go up to 54.7 GW in summer. The annual minimum valley of demand will raise 5.5 GW, up to 23.4 GW. These detailed predic-tions can be very useful to identify the types of power plants needed to have an optimum structure in the electricity industry.