To move or stay? A cellular automata model to predict urban growth in coastal regions amidst rising sea levels

Abstract

Low-lying coastal cities are widely acknowledged as the most densely populated places of urban settlement; they are also more vulnerable to risks resulting from intensive land use and land cover change, human activities, global climate change, and the rising sea levels. This study aims to predict how urban growth is affected by sea level rise (SLR) in the Australian context. We develop an urban cellular automata model incorporating urban planning policies as potential drivers or constraints of urban growth under different SLR scenarios and adaption strategies. Drawing on data capturing the socioeconomic and environmental factors in South East Queensland, Australia, our model is positioned to address one core research question: how does SLR affect future urban growth and human resettlement? Results show that urban growth in coastal regions varies depending on the extent to which the sea level rises and is affected by a combination of factors relating to urban planning and human adaptation strategies. Our study demonstrates the complexity of urban growth in coastal regions and the nuanced outcomes under different adaptation strategies in the context of rising sea levels.