The dos and don’ts for predicting invasion dynamics with species distribution models

Abstract

Invasion dynamics are context-dependent and non-equilibrial, with invasive spread and associated impacts continuously unfolding contingent on pathway, history, and chance, over features of recipient ecosystems. Identifying a tool that can predict the risk and extent of an invasion, and help stakeholders make informed decisions, is highly sought after. The Species Distribution Model (SDM) is a powerful statistical machinery for mapping species distribution potential based on geo-referenced occurrence records together with selected GIS layers of spatially explicit predictors, gaining popularity in biogeography and macroecology. Species Distribution Models have been widely used in studies of invasion biology, mostly to assess the invasion risk and potential distribution of a prospective invader using records primarily from its native range. As a powerful statistical tool, an SDM will process any input data into compelling results presented as alluring maps; this however runs the risk of ‘garbage-in, gospel-out’—overly trusting a suitability map generated from a black-box software package, followed by potential cognitive biases that steer one to justify the suitability map as ecological reality. In this Editorial, I describe some common practices and highlight key issues that need to be addressed in predicting invasion dynamics using SDMs. This is a call for a more conscious practice of SDMs in invasion science.