Genetic Composition and Autoantibody Titers Model the Probability of Detecting C-Peptide Following Type 1 Diabetes Diagnosis

Abstract

We and others previously demonstrated that a type 1 diabetes genetic risk score (GRS) improves the ability to predict disease progression and onset in at-risk subjects with islet autoantibodies. Here, we hypothesized that GRS and islet autoantibodies, combined with age at onset and disease duration, could serve as markers of residual b-cell function following type 1 diabetes diagnosis. Generalized estimating equations were used to investigate whether GRS along with insulinoma-associated protein2 autoantibody (IA–2A), zinc transporter 8 autoantibody (ZnT8A), and GAD autoantibody (GADA) titers were predictive of C-peptide detection in a largely cross-sectional cohort of 401 subjects with type 1 diabetes (median duration 4.5 years [range 0–60]). Indeed, a combined model with incorporation of disease duration, age at onset, GRS, and titers of IA–2A, ZnT8A, and GADA provided superior capacity to predict C-peptide detection (quasi-likelihood information criterion [QIC] 5 334.6) compared with the capacity of disease duration, age at onset, and GRS as the sole parameters (QIC 5 359.2). These findings support the need for longitudinal validation of our combinatorial model. The ability to project the rate and extent of decline in residual C-peptide production for individuals with type 1 diabetes could critically inform enrollment and benchmarking for clinical trials where investigators are seeking to preserve or restore endogenous b-cell function.