Scenario-based exploratory technology roadmaps – A method for the exploration of technical trends

Abstract

Scenario-based exploratory technology roadmaps are a profound and comprehensive basis for the concrete planning of technologies and innovations. In comparison to other approaches of technology roadmapping a particular focus is put on an intensive analysis of the technology’s non-technical influences. This concept assumes that the development of a technology is influenced by market-related, societal and economic factors as well as by technical factors outside the technology under consideration. Another characteristic of this approach is that the development of the technology does not follow an evolutionary path. The future development of the impact area is established in the first place. From this future picture of exogenous influencing factors, the performance requirements applying to the technology and the pathways of technological development are derived. Scenario-based technology roadmaps are an instrument of technological forecasting; they are not yet a planning instrument.