Modelling and Forecast of Earthquake Generation Processes

Abstract

Physical processes of earthquake generation may be divided into three different stages, such tectonic loading, quasi-static nucleation, and subsequent dynamic rupture propagation. The basic equations governing the earthquake generation process are; the equation of motion in elastodynamic that relates slip motion on a fault surface with deformation of the surrounding elastic media, the fault constitutive law that prescribes the relation between shear stress and fault slip (and/or slip velocity on the fault surface during earthquake rupture, and the loading function that gives the increase ratE of external shear stress induced by relative plate motion. Recent development in physics of earth quake generation enables us to simulate the entire process of earthquake generation by solving thesE nonlinear coupled equations. For long-term prediction of earthquake occurrence the detection ol crustal movements associated with tectonic loading is important. For short-term prediction the detection of precursory phenomena associated with rupture nucleation is important. In either case is necessary to establish an interactive forecast system based on theoretical simulation and continuous monitoring of earthquake generation processes. •˜1.‚Í ‚ ¶ ‚ß ‚É 'n •k ‚Ì "-• ¶ ‚ð ‰È Šw "I ‚É-\ 'ª ‚· ‚é ‚½ ‚ ‚É ‚Í,‚» ‚ê ‚ª'· Šú "I ‚È ‚à‚Ì ‚Å ‚ ‚ê 'Z Šú "I ‚È ‚à ‚Ì ‚Å ‚ ‚ê,•ae ‚¸•‚¸•u 'n •k ‚AE ‚͉½ ‚©,‚È ‚º,‚Ç ‚Ì ‚ae ‚¤ ‚É ‚µ‚Ä "-• ¶ ‚· ‚é ‚Ì‚© •v ‚AE ‚¢ ‚¤‚± ‚AE ‚ª •ª ‚© ‚Á‚Ä ‚¢ ‚È ‚¯ ‚ê ‚Î ‚È ‚ç ‚È ‚¢.'n •k Šw ‚Í100"N ˆÈ •ã ‚à‚Ì '· ‚¢-ð Žj ‚ð Ž• ‚Á Šw-â •ª-ì ‚Å ‚ ‚é ‚ª,‚» ‚Ì' † •S ‰Û 'è ‚Å ‚ ‚é •u 'n •k ‚AE ‚Í ‰½ ‚© •v ‚AE ‚¢ ‚¤-â ‚É ‚Á ‚¢ ‚Ä ‚Ì "š ‚¦ ‚ª "¾ ‚ç ‚ê ‚½ ‚Ì ‚Í,•¡ ‚© ‚ç‚í ‚¸‚©30‚¸‚©30"N 'O ‚Ì ‚± ‚AE ‚É ‚· ‚¬ ‚È ‚¢•B •u 'n •k ‚ÌOE´ ˆö ‚Í 'f 'w ‰^ "® ‚Å ‚ ‚é•v ‚AE ‚¢ ‚¤OE» •Ý ‚Ì ‹¤ 'Ê "F Ž¯ ‚Í,1960 "N 'ã "¼ ‚Î ‚ÌMA'¦YA-iA(1963)‚âBu"ò •®DG•'and KN••. po'¦(1964)‚É ‚ae ‚é ƒf ƒB ƒX ƒ• ƒP •[ ƒV ƒ ‡ ƒ"-• ˜_ ‚Ì "± "ü ‚É ‚ae ‚Á ‚ÄŠm-§ ‚³‚ê ‚½ ‚à‚Ì ‚Å ‚ ‚é.‚Ü ‚½,•u'n •k ‚Í ‚È‚º ‹N ‚± ‚é ‚Ì ‚© •v ‚AE ‚¢ ‚¤-â ‚É ‚ ‚¢ ‚Ä ‚à,60"N 'ã ‚É •o OE» ‚µ‚½ ƒv ƒOE •[ *• §113-0033"OE ‹ž "s• ¶ ‹ž ‹ae-{‹½7-3-1 ƒg •Eƒe ƒN ƒgƒj ƒN ƒX ‚É ‚ae ‚è,•u 'n •k ‚Í ƒv ƒOE•[ ƒg‚Ì 'Š 'Î ‰^ "® ‚É ‚ae ‚Á ‚Ä• ¶ ‚ ¶‚½'n Šk ‚̘c‚̘c ƒG ƒl ƒ‹ ƒM •[ ‚ð‰ð •Á ‚· ‚éˆê ‰ß 'ö ‚AE ‚µ‚Ä"-• ¶ ‚· ‚é•v ‚AE ‚¢ ‚¤‹¤ 'Ê "F Ž¯ ‚ª Šm-§ ‚³‚ê ‚½. 'n •k ‚Ì OE´ˆöOE´ˆö ‚Í'f 'w ‰^ "® ‚Å ‚ ‚é ‚AE ‚¢ ‚¤Šî-{ "I-• ‰ð ‚ÉŠî ‚Ã ‚«,60"N 'ã OEã "¼ ‚© ‚ç70"N 'ã ‚É‚© ‚¯ ‚Ä,‚³ ‚Ü ‚´‚Ü‚´‚Ü ‚ȉ^ "® Šw "I •k OE¹ ƒ‚ ƒf ƒ‹[HAsK•'LL(1964), SATo and H"ÀAsAwA (1973),MAD‰ìIAGA(1976)]‚ª 'ñˆÄ ‚³‚ê,'f 'w ‰^ "® ‚É"º ‚¤'n •k "g ‚Ì •ú ŽË ‚ª OEv ŽZ ‚Å ‚« ‚é ‚ae ‚¤ ‚É ‚È ‚Á ‚½.‚µ ‚© ‚µ,‚± ‚ê ‚ç‚Ì ‰^ "® Šw "I ƒ‚ƒf ƒ‹ ‚Í,"j ‰ó('f 'w-Ê ‚Ì ‚· ‚× ‚è)‚ª Žn ‚Ü ‚鎞 •• ‚à•ê •Š ‚à,"` "d ‚µ‚Ä ‚¢ ‚-'¬ ‚³ ‚à,‚» ‚µ‚Ä 'â Ž~ ‚· ‚é•ê •Š ‚à'S ‚Ä •Å •‰ ‚© ‚ç-^ ‚¦ ‚ç‚ê ‚Ä ‚¢ ‚é ƒ‚ ƒf ƒ‹ ‚È‚Ì ‚Å,'n •k "-• ¶-\ 'ª ‚AE ‚¢ ‚¤-â 'è ‚É ŠÖ ‚µ‚Ä ‚Í'S ‚-³-Í ‚Å ‚ ‚Á ‚½. "j ‰ó ‚Í ‚Ç ‚±‚Å ‚Ç‚Ì ‚ae ‚¤‚É ‚µ‚Ä Žn ‚Ü ‚è,‚Ç ‚Ì ‚ae ‚¤ ‚É"` "d ‚µ,‚Ç ‚Ì ‚ae ‚¤ ‚É'â Ž~ ‚· ‚é ‚Ì ‚© ‚AE ‚¢ ‚¤-â ‚É "š ‚¦ ‚é ‚½ ‚ß ‚É ‚Í,"j ‰ó ‰ß 'ö ‚ð Žx "z ‚µ‚Ä ‚¢ ‚镨-•-@ '¥ ‚ð 'm ‚ç ‚È ‚¯‚ê ‚Î ‚È