Real-Time Reservoir Operation Policy: A Case Study of Tanahu Hydropower Project

Abstract

For water resources engineering community, reservoir operation is a complex job. Real-time reservoir operation is furthermore complex as it has to consider the real-time hydrological uncertain events. In this paper, a real-time operation model is presented for Tanahu Hydropower Reservoir System in Nepal. To handle the real-time hydrology, it has to predict the reservoir inflow, which is done by using genetic programming (GP). For this, GP-based inflow forecasted models are developed. The reservoir optimization model is solved using EMPSO method for few years’ inflow data, and the optimal solutions are obtained and used to generalize the operational policies. The release policies are used that obtained from EMPSO model and generalization is done with the function of initial storages and inflows to it by using GP model. Finally, the reservoir operation policies are formulated with the forecasted inflow. Performance of models is measured by using coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean squared error (RMSE) and found that the real-time operational model shows good accuracy.