Arson in an urban setting: a multi-event near repeat chain analysis in Flint, Michigan

Abstract

A growing body of literature has recently begun to examine spatiotemporal nuances of arson. However, criminal justice research has minimally investigated how an arson event might serve as an initiator for a string of arsons. To rectify this gap, the current study conducted a near repeat analysis incorporating multiple-event near repeat chains to identify possible spatiotemporal patterns for arson in Flint, Michigan. Findings underscore that increased risk of repeat arson victimization was most pronounced for residential arsons. Results for near repeat chains indicate an average mean risk of roughly 5 days but for certain chains risk lasted for up to 2 months. Discussion of implications, limitations, and future research are also provided.