Discovering of health risks and case-based forecasting of epidemics in a health surveillance system

Abstract

In this paper we present the methodology and the architecture of an early warning system which fulfills the following tasks. (1) discovering of health risks, (2) forecasting of the temporal and spatial spread of epidemics and (3) estimating of the consequences of an epidemic w.r.t, the personnel load and costs of the public health service. To cope this three task methods from knowledge discovery and data mining, case-based reasoning, and statistics are applied.