The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico’s National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level rates on assault & battery, theft & property crime, fraud, drug crimes & extortion, and homicides. Our results show that the majority of crimes follow a U-shaped trend—when the lockdown ends—crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.
CITATION STYLE
Balmori de la Miyar, J. R., Hoehn-Velasco, L., & Silverio-Murillo, A. (2021). The U-shaped crime recovery during COVID-19: evidence from national crime rates in Mexico. Crime Science, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00147-8
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