Dynamic impacts of economic and environmental performances on agricultural productivity in Somalia: Empirical evidence from ARDL technique

Abstract

This study, conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and Cointegration analysis, explores the dynamic impacts of economic and environmental factors on agricultural productivity in Somalia, spanning from 1990 to 2023. This study incorporates domestic investment, carbon dioxide emissions, rural population growth, and rainfall. The findings, which have significant practical implications, reveal that increasing domestic investment and rural population growth positively influence agricultural output over the long term. This underscores the crucial role of investing in agricultural infrastructure and human capital development. Conversely, higher carbon dioxide emissions negatively impact agricultural productivity, highlighting the urgent need to mitigate climate change effects. Moreover, rainfall emerges as a crucial factor positively affecting agricultural output, emphasizing the importance of water management and conservation efforts. These findings lead to several practical policy recommendations to enhance agricultural productivity in Somalia, including investments in agricultural infrastructure, mitigation of carbon emissions, support for rural development, and promotion of water management and conservation initiatives. Implementing these recommendations can contribute to achieving sustainable agricultural growth, improving food security, and fostering economic development in Somalia, aligning with the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals.